WC 2026 · MODEL PERFORMANCE
ACCURACY
24 games · walk-forward blind predictions
DRAW ANALYSIS
ACTUAL RATE38%9 draws
MODEL CALLS0%0 predicted
PRECISION0%of calls correct
⚠️ Actual draw rate 38% vs model prior — under-calibrated. R2 prior recalibrated to 30.4%.
ROLLING ACCURACY (5-GAME WINDOW)
80%Game 1Game 24
OUTCOME BREAKDOWN (CALL RATE vs PRECISION)
Home calls
19g
Draw calls
0g
Away calls
5g
Call ratePrecision
VS NAIVE BASELINES
Always pick home
58.3%
🤖 Model (WC2026 R1)
54.2%
Always pick higher ELO
54.2%
R1 predictions ran ELO only — pre-tournament form not seeded. Model improves as in-tournament form data accumulates.